HANDICAPPING |
USING PEDIGREE STATISTICS The pedigree statistics in the Handicapper's portfolio for maiden and turf races are extremely powerful, when used properly and should be used only BEFORE a runner establishes its preferences for distance and surface conditions. Once a runner demonstrates its preferences, disregard the runner's pedigree for handicapping. AN EXAMPLE OF PEDIGREE STATISTICS ON A RUNNER: RECKLESS ROSE, 21FEB85 114, $ 10,500, JKY: FP FUENTES BY THE IRISH LORD (333fls)(75%wnr)(44%2ywnr)(16%1st)(17%mud)(awd6.3)(spi1.79) - GO SOUTH (p)(4str)(3wnrs)(1sw)(25%2ywnrs)(dpi3.88) EXPLANATIONS OF THE NUMERICAL INDEXES & RATINGS STANDARD STARTS INDEX (SSI) A numerical racing index based on average earnings per start of a runner in North America. It allows a comparison of racing performance of horses regardless of their year of birth or sex. The computation of the SSI takes into account inflation and the lower earning potential of fillies. The SSI is calculated by taking all the foals born in a given year and determining that crop's average earnings per start for each year that crop raced, calculating colts and fillies separately. A runner's SSI is no longer recalculated after five years of racing. For example, the average earnings per start at two for all colts foaled in 1960 was $400; and the average earnings per start at two for all fillies foaled in 1960 was $283. Thus, a colt foaled in 1960 with average earnings per start at two of $400 has an SSI of 1.00. And a filly foaled in 1960 with average earnings per start at two of $283 also has an SSI of 1.00. Both the colt and filly have the same SSI due to the higher lifetime earning expectancy of colts. A runner with an index of 1.00 is considered to be of the same caliber as all other runners with indexes of 1.00 regardless of the year foaled or sex. Thus, a colt foaled in 1930 which had an average per start of $94 and an SSI of 1.00 for his crop and sex would be considered of the same caliber as a colt foaled in 1960 with an average earnings per start of $400 and an SSI of 1.00. DAM'S PRODUCTION INDEX (DPI) The DPI indicates the average racing class of a mare's foals. It is an average of the SSIs of all of a mare's foals that have started three or more times in North America. SIRE PRODUCTION INDEX (SPI) The SPI indicates the average racing class of a stallion's foals. It is an average of the SSIs of all of a stallion's foals that have started three or more times in North America. This can be subdivided by sex of the foals as well, comparing the average SSI of his colts with that of his fillies. THE FIRST LINE CONTAINS RUNNER INFORMATION: "RECKLESS ROSE" = THE RUNNER'S NAME "21FEB85" = THE RUNNER'S FOALING DATE By knowing the actual birth dates of two-year-olds, handicappers have an edge at the betting windows. The "early" foals (Jan-Mar) have a tremendous advantage over "late" foals, due to their maturity advantage. "114" = ASSIGNED WEIGHT FOR THE RACE ENTERED "$10,500" = HIGHEST PUBLIC AUCTION PRICE "JKY: FP FUENTES" = JOCKEY FOR THE RACE ENTERED THE SECOND LINE CONTAINS SIRE STATISTICS: "THE IRISH LORD" = THE RUNNER'S SIRE'S NAME (333fls) = THE NUMBER OF FOALS BY THE SIRE It is recommended that handicappers demand at least fifty (50) foals by a sire before weighting that sire's pedigree statistics heavily. This will insure the reliability of the information. (75%wnr) = THE PERCENTAGE OF STARTERS TO HAVE WON AT LEAST ONE RACE BY THE SIRE. The higher the %wnr the better. (44%2ywnr) = THE PERCENTAGE OF 2-YEAR-OLD STARTERS TO HAVE WON AT LEAST ONE RACE In two-year-old races, prefer runners with a high "%2ywnr". (16%1st) = WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S FIRST-TIME STARTERS Any first-time starter with a %1st greater than 15% should be considered a threat to win at first asking. Is the runner ready? Check the runner's workout tab and the trainer's competence with first-time starters. In addition, the handicapper should look for a leading jockey or stable rider. NOTE: AFTER A RUNNER HAS RACED, DO NOT USE THE %1ST IN YOUR HANDICAPPING. (17%MUD) = THE WIN PERCENTAGE OF MUD STARTS BY THE SIRE If a runner hasn't yet demonstrated a liking or disliking for mud and today's track is muddy, use the "%mud" to predict the runner's preference. Prefer runners with high "%mud" percentages. (AWD6.3) = THE AVERAGE WINNING DISTANCE (IN FURLONGS) OF THE SIRE'S WINNERS Among first-time starters entered in sprints, look for runners with an AWD close to distance of the race you're handicapping, but prefer AWDs shorter than the distance. These first-time starters are the most likely to show the early speed that dominates these races. If a first-time starter's AWD is larger than desired (ie., greater than 6.5 in a 6 furlong sprint), the handicapper should become strict on other measures of early speed - in particular, demand a relatively high %1st and/or at least one short work out at three or four furlongs indicating "strong speed". Generally, workouts of about 12 seconds per furlong is a good indication of speed. For runners "stretching out" (sprint to route) for the first time, prefer those runners whose sire shows an AWD of seven (7) furlongs or more. These first time "stretch outs" are more likely to show the stamina it takes to cover the extra distance in these races. (spi1.79) = The Sire's Production Index is a numerical representation of a sire's class and consistency, based upon relative earnings. The calculation of the SPI involves the ratio of a sire's colts and fillies average earnings per start for a year, respectively, and the average earnings per start for all colts and fillies, respectively, for the same year. The average SPI of all sires is 1.00. The SPI is useful with first-time starters and first-time stretchouts. While the SPI is not as powerful as some other pedigree statistics (%1st and awd), it is quite helpful when used to separate otherwise equal first-time starters and first-time stretchouts. ON TURF RACES THE FOLLOWING STATISTICS WILL ALSO APPEAR:
( %tfwins) = WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S STARTERS ON THE TURF %tfwins is best used to evaluate first-time turf starters. %tfwins combined with %1sttf is a reliable indicator of a runner's probable liking/disliking to the turf. Obviously, the handicapper prefers the higher percentages. ( %1sttf) = WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S FIRST-TIME TURF STARTERS Any first-time turf starter with a %1sttf greater than 15% should be considered a threat - regardless of recent form on the dirt. THE THIRD LINE CONTAINS DAM STATISTICS: Dam statistics, in general, should be weighted considerably less than sire statistics. The lighter weighting of dams is justified simply on the basis of numbers. Since a stallion may sire hundreds of foals, his statistics are far more reliable than that of a dam who produces just a few. Still, dam statistics can be helpful (ie., to separate otherwise equal first-time starters). "GO SOUTH" = THE DAM'S NAME (p) = THE DAM'S RACE PERFORMANCE. The best race performance of GO SOUTH was "placed". Prefer in descending order: sw - stakes winner sp - stakes placed w - winner p - placed up - unplaced ur - unraced (4str) = THE NUMBER OF FOALS WHICH STARTED AT LEAST ONE RACE Demand at least 4 starters out of the Dam to assure reliability of the information. (3wnrs) = THE NUMBER OF STARTERS THAT HAVE WON A RACE Obviously, the more winners the better. (1sw) = THE NUMBER OF STARTERS THAT HAVE WON A STAKES RACE Again, the more stakes winners the better. (25%2ywnrs) = THE PERCENTAGE OF STARTERS THAT WON A ONE RACE AS A TWO-YEAR-OLD. In two-year-old races, runners with a high "%2ywnrs" are preferred. (dpi3.88) = DAM'S PRODUCTION INDEX (SEE SIRE PRODUCTION INDEX FOR EXPLANATION) Like the SPI, the DPI is useful for separating young runners with little or no racing record. The handicapper prefers runners with the higher DPI. APPLICATIONS OF PEDIGREE STATISTICS: ****************************************************************************** * DANCING LINDSAY, 86 117, TR: GOSDEN JOHN H M, JKY: CA BLACK * * BY LILOY (FR) (193fls)(51%wnr)(14%2ywnr)(2%1st)(13%mud)(awd7.7)(spi2.15) * * - BOLD BRAT (sw)(4str)(1wnrs)(1sw)(0%2ywnrs)(dpi2.01) * * 25Jy88HOL06 6f FT 03 5 1/4 Gosden J Md Sp Wt 111.5 111.9 57 26000 * * 10Jy88HOL04 6f FT 09 19 Gosden J Md Sp Wt 111.7 107.8 44 26000 * ****************************************************************************** In two-year-old maiden races at a mile (or more), handicappers should concentrate their analysis of the race on those runners which figure to benefit at the distance. With most two-year-old-races carded at sprint distances, many two-year-olds bred for the longer distances must enter sprints until a race at a favorable distance is carded. The sixth race at Del Mar on September 7, 1988 was at one mile for two-year-old maidens. Handicapper's with Bloodstock Research's pedigree information could have easily spotted a tremendous overlay. In a race filled with runners stretching out for the first time in their young careers, Dancing Lindsay figured to benefit the most from the added distance - as evidenced by an AWD of 7.7. This lightly raced filly was exiting a good effort at six furlongs in only her second career start. Placed at a more comfortable distance, she figured to show more improvement. With the generous odds of 12.5 to 1, Dancing Lindsay was a license to steal. She won easily paying $27.00. ******************************************************************************* * DECOY, 86 118, JKY: A CORDERO JR * *BY CLEVER TRICK (241fls)(72%wnr)(50%2ywnr)(21%1st)(16%mud)(awd6.5)(spi2.28) * * - BRIDGE TABLE (ur)(3str)(3wnrs)(0sw)(33%2ywnrs)(dpi3.13) * * No Previous North American Starts * ******************************************************************************* Two-year-old maiden races are dominated by runners with early speed. Runners expected to be up front early combined with moderate to high odds present handicappers with solid investment opportunities. The fourth race at Belmont on September 7, 1988 was a 5 1/2 furlong sprint for maiden two-year-olds. This race powerfully demonstrates the value of Bloodstock Research's pedigree information. Decoy, a first-time starter, was obviously well bred - as indicated by a SPI of 2.28 and a DPI of 3.13 . And more importantly his pedigree statistics indicated an ability to win at first asking - as indicated by a %1st of 21%! The AWD of 6.5 is acceptable - especially, considering the high %1st and a 3f workout in :36 flat from the gate (printed in the Daily Racing Form). At odds of nearly 8 to 1, Decoy was a solid investment and proved to be a profitable one. He went wire to wire, while never being threatened paying $17.80. |
